One of the things people have always marveled about with Adrian Gonzalez is the fact that he has been able to hit 30+ homers in four consecutive seasons with the Padres, despite playing half of his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. So, what can we expect now that A-Gone is about to be set loose?
Well, let’s start by looking at his career home-away splits:
Home: .263/.360/.440 with 61 home runs, 214 RBI and an 800 OPS (.279/.383/.438 with 11 homers, 42 RBI and an 821 OPS in 2010)
Away: .303/.376/.568 with 107 home runs, 311 RBI and a 943 OPS (.315/.402/.578 with 20 homers, 59 RBI and a 980 OPS in 2010)
This is the primary reason why the rest of the American League should be scared. Keep in mind, those home-away splits include 29 games with the Rangers in 2004 and 2005. Factoring in only PETCO Park, he has a .267/.367/.442 batting line to go along with an 808 OPS.
Fenway Park isn’t exactly a home-run haven, but it will certainly be a more fair environment, as Bill James Park Indices routinely ranks PETCO Park as the worst park for a left-handed hitter. Gonzalez’s natural inside-out swing should play brilliantly in Boston. His numbers should also see a nice boost thanks to playing plenty of road games at Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards and Rogers Centre, which cater to left-handed power.
Craig mentioned earlier that the Red Sox are discussing a trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com writes that multiple teams besides are involved in negotiations, including the Cubs.
Obviously Starlin Castro would be untouchable here, but you’d have to think guys like Tyler Colvin, Andrew Cashner, Brett Jackson, Chris Archer, Trey McNutt and Hak-Ju Lee would be fair game. Good enough to compete with a package from the Red Sox? Hard to say.
One source tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com that the Padres are “trying to see what’s out there” to determine whether to trade Gonzalez right now or keep him for 2011 and either receive draft pick compensation or trade him should they fall out of the race during the season. It’s not an easy call, especially after coming off a 90-win season, but the Padres stand to get more in return now than they would for what will essentially be a two or three month rental in July.
The Red Sox and Padres have apparently agreed on a trade for Adrian Gonzalez. The All-Star first baseman is either already Boston or on the way according to Nick Cafardo and other reports.
The next step in the process would be for Gonzalez to have a physical and agree on a contract extension.
Neither of those steps are necessarily guaranteed, Gonzalez recently had surgery on his right (non-throwing) shoulder that will reportedly keep him out early in spring training. The Red Sox have to be assured that the injury is not more serious than that. The team also would need Gonzalez signed long term before consummating the deal.
It is unclear who the Red Sox are giving up. The package appears to be built around RHP Casey Kelly and 1B Anthony Rizzo.
UPDATE, 8:59 a.m.: It would seem the plan would be to play Kevin Youkilis at third base with Gonzalez at first base. Whatever interest they had in retaining Adrian Beltre has ended.
It will be interesting to see whether the Sox then go try to sign Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth and put together what would certainly be an imposing lineup. Crawford is the better all-around player and makes sense long-term. But the right-handed hitting Werth would fit in nicely in 2011 and could be signed for fewer years.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE, 9:07 a.m.: Padres closer Heath Bell is reportedly not involved in the trade and the Red Sox will not be parting with Daniel Bard.
Casey Kelly, by all accounts, is at the center of the deal.
This would be the biggest move of Theo Epstein's tenure, I think, given that Gonzalez is a prime-time position player under 30. The Nomar Garciaparra deal, while significant, did not return a centerpiece player. And dealing Manny Ramirez was a move forced by the circumstances at the time.
Gonzalez is arguably one of the top 10 players in baseball and in his prime.
The closest move in terms of significance might be obtaining Curt Schilling given what transpired.
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